A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
