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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.